If you search for an answer to this question, you will see the same figures on dozens of websites, presented as fresh analytics. In reality, almost all of them cite the same document, namely the World Economic Forum report on the future of jobs, published in January 2025 with a forecast through 2030. Some websites call it the 2026 report, while others provide even older data from the previous edition, namely eighty-five million jobs lost and ninety-seven million jobs created, and present them as current. Therefore, let us start with what exactly is written in this report.

The Main Figures

By 2030, approximately ninety-two million jobs are projected to disappear and approximately one hundred and seventy million new ones to be created. The net balance is approximately plus seventy-eight million. The total volume of changes, that is, the sum of created and eliminated positions, equals approximately twenty-two percent of all jobs that exist today. That is, the forecast is not catastrophic in terms of the final balance, but it assumes that approximately every fifth job will either disappear or be created anew. It is also worth noting separately that fifty-nine percent of the global workforce will require retraining by 2030.

The Most Important Difference in the Entire Topic

Now let us understand why different studies give such different numbers.

Consulting company McKinsey estimates that approximately fifty-seven percent of work activities are subject to automation, but at the same time less than five percent of professions can be fully replaced. This difference is the key to the entire topic. It is not the profession that is automated, but individual tasks within it. An accountant who previously spent half of their time entering data does not disappear, but begins to spend this time on something else. This is precisely why the estimates look so contradictory. When you read that forty percent of jobs are affected, it means that they contain tasks that technologies can perform, not that these jobs will disappear. The International Monetary Fund estimates this exposure at approximately forty percent of jobs worldwide. Goldman Sachs estimates that approximately three hundred million jobs have some tasks that are subject to automation, and that approximately two-thirds of jobs in the United States and Europe contain such tasks. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development gives more restrained estimates, namely approximately fourteen percent of jobs at high risk of automation and approximately thirty-two percent in which tasks will change substantially. None of these figures means layoffs. They mean a change in the content of work.

Which Professions Are Declining the Fastest

Here, the forecasts from different sources coincide, and this is the most reliable part of the data. The professions declining the fastest are those related to routine information processing, namely data entry operators, postal workers, cashiers, and bank tellers. According to the forecast, these categories will lose at least twenty percent of positions over four to five years. According to some estimates, approximately seven and a half million positions related to data entry and administrative work may disappear as early as 2027. The Forum also forecasts that approximately sixty-five percent of tasks related to data and information processing may be fully automated by 2027. The common feature of all these professions is obvious. They consist primarily of repetitive operations according to clear rules, without the need for judgment, context, or responsibility for decisions.

Which Professions Are Growing

The other side of the report receives significantly less attention, although the figure there is larger. Demand is growing for specialists who create and maintain the technologies themselves, namely researchers, machine learning engineers, and data specialists. Demand for data analysts is growing because technologies work with data, and people who know how to collect, structure, and interpret it are becoming more needed. Demand is growing in areas related to physical presence, care, repair, and maintenance, since these tasks are the most difficult to automate. And separately, adjacent fields are growing that did not exist several years ago, namely artificial intelligence system security and analysis of their operation.

The Asymmetry You Should Know About

Studies note that entry-level positions and administrative tasks are particularly vulnerable to replacement. The logic here is unfortunate. Traditionally, a person entered a profession by performing simple tasks and gradually moved on to complex ones. It is precisely these simple tasks that are being automated first.

That is, it is not the profession that disappears, but the step from which people entered it. This is also confirmed by attitudes, since among young people aged eighteen to twenty-four, approximately fifty-two percent are concerned about the impact of technology on their careers.

What Employers Themselves Say

A survey of executives gives a picture that differs from the public discussion. Approximately fifty-four percent expect technologies to displace existing jobs, and only about twenty-four percent believe that they will create new ones. Approximately forty-one percent of companies plan to reduce their workforce because of these technologies by 2030. At the same time, eighty-five percent of employers plan to retrain existing employees, which is a significantly higher figure. And only approximately twelve percent expect a positive impact on salary levels. That is, businesses primarily see savings rather than an increase in employee well-being, and this should be taken into account when planning.

What Is Already Happening

Forecasts for 2030 are interesting, but it is more useful to look at current data. In the first quarter of 2026, approximately seventy-eight and a half thousand positions were eliminated in the technology sector, with almost half of them directly associated with the implementation of these technologies. Over the entire period since 2023, more than seventy-one thousand eight hundred layoffs have been recorded in the United States that employers directly attributed to this particular reason. That is, the process is already underway, although on a scale significantly smaller than projected.

Why the Picture Is Different for Ukraine

Here, a separate adjustment is needed, since all the studies mentioned work with Western markets.

The Ukrainian labor market has the opposite problem, namely not an excess of workers, but a shortage. It is precisely because of the shortage of personnel that median salaries in construction specialties currently exceed most office positions, as I wrote in the article about salaries by profession. The practical consequence is that in Ukraine, automation of routine tasks is perceived by businesses more as a way to fill a staffing gap than as a way to reduce the number of people. This does not eliminate the risks for administrative and operator positions, but it changes the speed of the changes. The second adjustment concerns export services, namely those who work for foreign clients. Western market rules apply to them rather than Ukrainian ones, and changes there are happening faster.

What to Do

Look at your work as a list of tasks rather than as a position. Write down exactly what you do throughout the week and mark which of these actions are repetitive operations according to clear rules without the need for judgment. If most of your actions are like this, your position is vulnerable regardless of its title.

There are two directions for action. The first is to transfer these tasks to tools yourself and direct the freed-up time toward what is difficult to automate, namely communication with people, making decisions in ambiguous situations, and responsibility for the result. The second is to deepen your domain expertise, since value is shifting from execution to understanding. A person who understands why a task is solved in a particular way remains needed. A person who only follows instructions does not. It is also worth taking into account that eighty-five percent of employers plan to retrain existing employees, meaning that initiative on your part has a chance of being supported.

What Not to Do

Do not focus on headlines about millions of disappearing jobs without clarifying whether they refer to disappearance or exposure. Do not confuse task automation with replacing a profession, since the difference is approximately fifty-seven percent versus less than five percent. Do not make a decision about changing professions based on forecasts, since they have a five-year horizon and a significant margin of error. Do not ignore the opposite side, since the greatest risk now is not the person who will be replaced by technology, but the person who will be replaced by a colleague who has learned to use it.

Summary

The forecast predicts that approximately ninety-two million jobs will disappear and approximately one hundred and seventy million new ones will be created by 2030, meaning that the net balance is positive, but approximately every fifth position will change. The key difference that explains the discrepancy between alarmist and reassuring materials is that approximately fifty-seven percent of work tasks are subject to automation, but less than five percent of professions can be fully replaced. Therefore, the practical question is not whether your profession will be replaced, but what share of your working week consists of repetitive operations and what you will do with the time that is freed up.


Sources

World Economic Forum Future of Jobs Report 2025, McKinsey estimates regarding the automation of work activities, data from the International Monetary Fund, Goldman Sachs and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, statistics on layoffs in the technology sector